Renowned historian Allan Lichtman, famed for accurately forecasting every US presidential election since 1984, has unveiled his prediction for the upcoming contest.
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Lichtman, a professor at American University, employs a system dubbed ’13 Keys’ which relies solely on historical factors, eschewing polls and campaign events.
Despite polls indicating Joe Biden trailing in swing states, Lichtman believes the odds favor him over Donald Trump.
Highlighting Biden’s lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency as advantageous, Lichtman asserts that six more keys must falter for Biden’s defeat, a scenario he deems unlikely.
Dismissing early polls as insignificant, Lichtman emphasizes the centrality of governance over campaigning.
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Photo via CNN
He attributes Biden’s 2020 victory prediction to the COVID-19 pandemic, asserting Trump’s failure to address it adequately undermined his prospects.
Yet, Lichtman acknowledges factors favoring Trump, such as a potential third-party challenger and economic indicators.
Social unrest and charisma also play pivotal roles, with Biden facing scrutiny over college campus protests and age-related concerns.
In essence, while Lichtman’s forecast tilts in Biden’s favor, uncertainties persist, underscoring the unpredictable nature of electoral outcomes.
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