How many times was Groundhog Day correct? How many times is Groundhog Day right?

Every year on February 2, millions of people tune in to watch the famous groundhog Punxsutawney Phil emerge from his burrow and predict the weather for the next six weeks. According to the tradition, if Phil sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, it means an early spring.

But how accurate are Phil’s predictions? Can we trust a rodent to forecast the weather better than a meteorologist? Let’s take a look at some facts and figures to find out.

According to the Stormfax Weather Almanac, Phil has been making predictions since 1887, and he has seen his shadow 107 times (84%) and not seen it 19 times (15%). There was one year (1999) when he saw a partial shadow and 10 years when there was no record or he did not appear.

However, seeing his shadow does not necessarily mean he is right. The almanac also tracks how often Phil’s predictions matched the actual weather in the U.S., based on national temperature averages. It turns out that Phil has been right only 39% of the time, which is worse than a coin toss.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information also analyzed Phil’s predictions from 2012 to 2021 and found that he was right 40% of the time, which is slightly better than his historical average but still not very impressive.

The agency noted that predicting the weather for an entire country with such varied regional climates is not easy and that Phil’s track record is evidence of that. They also pointed out that Phil is not a meteorologist, but a simple marmot who is probably more interested in finding food than forecasting the weather.

So, how many times was Groundhog Day correct? How many times is Groundhog Day right? The answer is: not very often. Phil may be a cute and fun tradition, but he is not a reliable source of weather information.